The value of the yen is increasing compared to the Australian dollar, but the rest of the Asian currencies currnetly aren't. This mean imports from Japan are more expensive and apparently we may see this reflected in next years pricing of Japan imports if things don't change. It's why when the Australian dollar was worth $1.10 it was the single most absolute worst thing for Australia. For everythng, imports were considerably cheaper pushng out local manufacturers, local manufacturers also couldn't export sucessfully because they were getting considerably less money for their exported products. The companies movies offshore or closed, resulting in less government revenue. Also the amount of money from mining was considerably less. They were getting $100+ (let's call it an even $100 even though it was more than that) US a tonne for iron or for example. it costs around $50 to mine it, give or take (which is why they're struggling now). With the Australian dollar worth so high they were effectively getting around $90 US a tonne with exports. That's $40 profit a tonne, which affects the tax they pay, the mining royalties etc. If the Australian dollar was worth 80 cents instead, they would be getting $125 tonne, but the input costs would be roughly the same because it's internal to Australia. So, the profit is $75 a tonne instead of 40, which is over 85 percent more.
It's really unfortunate because it was a boom that may not be repeated to the same extent at least, and they could have got 85 percent more mining tax and royalties as a result. Bit of an oversimplification but it does largely work that way! For the government to have been getting record revenue and racking up record debt at a time where they could have paid off all national debt with the mining boom tax and royalties screams incompetence. Remember that the money Australia borrows has interest on it, it's something like tens of billions of dollars a year. That's tens of billions of dolllars each and every year that Australia no longer has to spend on hospitals, education, and the like.
The decisions to close Holden, Toyota, and Ford were largely influenced by the fact it wasn't viable to produce cars here with the Australian dollar so high. Toyota were going to make the RAV4 here, and Ford initially were going to make the Ranger, the Ranger based Everest (the intention was there for a long time), and the Ford Focus (part knock-down kit, part local suppliers for the Focus) here, but the Australian dollar made it uncompetitive.
So, a competent government during the mining boom would done everything they could to keep the Australian dollar down. It would have meant more expensive imports at the time but we'd be in a whole better shape now. They have forecast that the Australian dollar may get down into the 40 cent region, that would make imported cars a lot more expensive. Whichever government that will be in at the time will get the blame, but in reality it was the 2007-2013 actions that caused it.
How is this all relevant? Well, the Lancer is imported just like every other car on the market will be soon. Say if the car is worth $22,000, what is the import cost before tax, dealer profit and everything else? $15,000? If the Australian dollar drops to 50 cents from 70, that import cost rises to $21,000. Putting back on the $7000 Austalian imput, it makes it $28,000. Then there's higher tax on the $28,000, so maybe $28,500. If the Lancer does exist in the time when the Australian dollar falls to 50 cents, assuming the manufacturers will continue to absorb costs like they apparently are now, we will probaby have to pay at least $27,500 for the base model Lancer...
The Ethan Automotive prospective looks a lot more interesting
. Their sedan car will probably be a little bigger than the Lancer, probably along the lines of the size of the final Magna (1997-2005) design. Also the low dollar may simply mean lower performing models will be dropped from the Australian market because it would no longer be viable to absorb costs and provide warranty etc on such vehicles.